Burnley v Lincoln, Saturday 12.30
Lincoln played very well against Brighton in the last round and reach the last 16 for the first time since 1902, its going to be a massive day out for their supporters and one that every fan will remember.
Brighton made 8 changes in the last round but still put out a decent side.
Burnley also made 8 changes last time out. When betting on this game as always with the FA cup it’s predicting the starting 11 that holds the key to finding value. Even if Burnley do make 8 changes they comfortably beat a Championship team last time out, albeit one with 6 changes.
Burnley have 30 points a full 10 points above relegation and with their home form have a very real chance of at least reaching the semi-finals, however we are still pretty sure they will rest players, it’s depressing but there you go.
It will be pretty tight but at home we think that still offers value on Burnley. Get the best price on Burnley at 1.35
Huddersfield v Man City, Saturday 15.00
Huddersfield are flying in the Championship and have won 5 in a row, they are now only 4 points from automatic promotion. Here in lies the problem. It is highly likely they will make sweeping changes for this one. They rested half their team in the last round but as they were playing Rochdale they still won 4 -0.
City will make changes as well but in the cup their squad quality means that they will still field a team of Internationals. This should mean City get the job done without the need for a replay.
You can back them at a best price of 1.44
Middlesbrough v Oxford, Saturday 15.00
Since Middlesbrough scraped past Stanley in the last round their league position has worsened. In that game they played 5 regular 1st teamers, the question is will the manager be so bold in this one with relegation a very real possibility?
Oxford had a blip midweek against the also impressive Southend but are still a very good side who can cause Premier League teams problems, especially ones that are resting key players.
Middlesbrough are very unlikely to win this especially whilst also trying to stay in the division and so we think would not be too unhappy with getting knocked out. However they will not want to lose at home so the 11 they send out will give it their best.
For us its best to play on the Asian lines in this one and back Oxford + 1 at 2.02. That means that if Middlesbrough win by 1 you get your money back. Middlesbrough rarely score more than 1 let alone win by more than 1.
Millwall v Leicester, Saturday 15.00
This is the tightest game of the weekend in odds and in our estimation. Leicester are in massive trouble. They were awful against United at home and Swansea away 1st half, in the 2nd half they showed some fight but with confidence so low never really looked like getting 2 goals. They play Sevilla on Wednesday which is likely to be embarrassing and really could do with this Saturday off.
On the other hand a decent cup run might calm fans and also restore some confidence to what is a shadow of last years team.
As they showed against Derby their squad players are quite useful and if they can impress in the cup they can get in the 1st 11 given how badly the more experienced players are performing. This makes Saturday a great show case for some of them.
Millwall though are a decent side themselves and have not lost in the last 6, winning 4 of those games including Watford as one of their victims.
If you fancy Millwall to get the win then they are a best price of 2.9 but if you think the Leicester squad players can beat a Millwall 1st 11 then their best price is 2.6.
For us we think it will be tight and so want to win money on the draw as well as the win. We suggest you back Leicester + 0.25 at 1.61.
Wolves V Chelsea, Saturday 17.30
Burnley exposed some flaws in the Chelsea side, if you contain Hazard then the rest of the side struggle to release Costa, but really Chelsea will be very happy with a point at Turf Moor.
They are 8 points clear of City and so the title is not quite dead but very nearly. This should mean that Conte fields a strong side as winning the double in his first season must be a real goal for the Italian.
Wolves have lost their last 3 games after beating Liverpool. A 32,000 sell out will produce a classic cup atmosphere but we think Wolves will not have the quality to break down a very well drilled back 3 plus 2 holding midfielders.
Stick Chelsea in your Acca at a best price of 1.4
Fulham V Spurs, Sunday 2.00
This for us is the game most likely to produce an upset. Fulham have won 4 of their last 6 games and are close to a team that will get back in the Premier League. They create a lot of chances and have the quality to beat Premier League sides who are resting key players.
It’s hard to see Spurs not resting quite a few for this one. They are away tonight in the Europa league and are still a long way from a top 4 finish. They have a great cup history so whoever plays in this televised London Derby are going to be fighting like mad.
If you think Spurs will consider their great cup history and so field a strong side then 1.83 is a real bargain.
We think they will rest everyone and we also think Fulham have the quality to make them pay for that. Back Fulham at a top price of 4.75.
Blackburn V Man United, Sunday 16.15
This time BT sport have let the 10 year old pick the games, again United in the prime spot on a Sunday afternoon. Unlike the last round though at least this one is away from home and is again a Lancashire Derby.
The trouble is that Blackburn are 2nd bottom of the Championship but still in with a chance of survival with a fair wind, and so will rest their whole team in a game they are likely to lose anyway.
United play tonight and are now back in the hunt for a Champions league spot and have the league cup final next week, however we still expect a pretty strong side in this one from United.
We say stick them in your acca at 1.4 and sit down and watch it.
Sutton V Arsenal, Monday 19.55
Sutton played mid-week in Munich, actually that comparison is very unfair on Sutton. We think if they had gone to Bravaria they might have kept the score down more effectively than what was the worst Arsenal performance for many years. They were awful. It did actually look like Mr Wenger had selected 11 individuals at random from the street that afternoon, given them a cup of tea and kit and sent them out, the positions decided whilst out on the pitch doing a warm up. Sanchez and Koscielny played well and actually their best player was their keeper which says a lot when you get hammered 5 -1, it really should have been 10, that would have been fair.
How two clubs with similar revenue figures can produce two sides of such vastly different quality should be a concern for the whole of English Football. That kind of display cheapens the whole of the Premier league offering, if Sky and BT want to charge people £70 a month to watch football they need to find a way of that money translating to quality far more effectively than is the case at the moment.
Anyway back to the game. The FA cup is now Arsenal’s only chance of winning something in what is surely now Wengers last season. So they will pick themselves up and get down to business at a level that better suits their ability.
If you think Arsenal will bounce back with a win then you can back them at a whopping 1.18. They really should be able to beat Sutton even after their German fiasco, the question for us is by how many?
The Asian line we like is Sutton + 2.5 at 1.73
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